Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
