Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
